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CPC and Almanacs Offer Conflicting U.S. Winter 2025–26 Outlooks

Probabilistic CPC guidance contrasts with proprietary almanac methods of debated skill.

Overview

  • The Old Farmer's Almanac’s latest state-by-state map favors a mild, dry winter across large areas, with a notable cold, wet call for Florida and colder, snowier pockets in parts of the Appalachians and Ohio Valley.
  • The Old Farmer's Almanac also flags mild but wet conditions for portions of the Interior West and a mix of cold and dry zones across parts of the Midwest and Southeast.
  • The Farmer's Almanac projects the coldest outbreaks from the Northern Plains to New England, frequent snow for New England, classic winter conditions around the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and wetter spells across the Southwest and Southern Plains with limited southern snowfall.
  • The Climate Prediction Center’s December–February outlook tilts odds toward above-normal temperatures in Maine, central and southern Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, parts of California, Nevada and western Texas, with warmth also favored in parts of Alaska.
  • The CPC maps higher chances of above-normal precipitation for Alaska, the Northern Rockies and Plains, and parts of the Ohio Valley, with drier odds across portions of California, the Southwest, Texas, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, and it emphasizes these are probabilities rather than guarantees.