Overview

• New CPB calculations compare election programmes through 2030, quantifying impacts on growth, purchasing power, labour supply, public spending and debt.
• GroenLinks–PvdA shows stronger growth and the biggest gains for lower-income households, driven by major housing and infrastructure investment.
• VVD proposes the deepest spending restraint, including cuts to education and development aid, with a comparatively lower long‑run debt risk than other plans.
• ChristenUnie reduces poverty but weakens work incentives over time, CDA funds higher defence outlays with VAT and corporate tax hikes, and SGP prioritizes single‑earner relief while lowering labour supply and adding few homes.
• Separate scrutiny of the SP programme flags doubts about sustaining revenues from large wealth and corporate tax increases, while the party argues political tools could curb capital flight.