Overview

• Cox Automotive set a 2025 baseline of 16.1 million U.S. new-vehicle sales with a range of 15.8–16.4 million, up from a prior 15.6–15.7 million view.
• Third-quarter EV sales are forecast at roughly 410,000 units for about a 10% share, marking a new quarterly record.
• September’s selling pace is projected near a 16.2 million SAAR, up from 15.8 million a year earlier and slightly above August’s 16.1 million.
• Cox expects sales to cool in Q4 as the up to $7,500 federal EV tax credit ends this month and higher tariff-related costs lift prices.
• Market share gains are concentrated at the largest automakers, with General Motors up about 1 point and Toyota, Hyundai, and Ford each rising modestly as several smaller brands lose ground.