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4w ago

Courts Rewrite Debate Rules as Leading Candidates Pull Out of Globo Event

Last‑minute judicial orders changed how an absent candidate would be shown on television, shifting debate dynamics and raising questions about wider political consequences in the Senate.

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Overview

  • Datafolha polling released Thursday shows a razor‑close race with Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% in the first round and a second‑round statistical tie at 48% to 45%.
  • TSE minister Estela Aranha issued a liminar barring TV Globo from highlighting an empty Lula podium or allowing questions aimed at an absent candidate, a move that the Lula campaign used to justify his absence and to stage a simultaneous Flow Podcast interview for live rebuttals.
  • STF minister Gilmar Mendes ordered that Renan Santos be included in the Globo debate after earlier TSE denials, a decision that, together with the TSE ruling, prompted Flávio Bolsonaro to withdraw and left only three participants scheduled to appear on the network.
  • Political analysis compiled by Plano Político projects the PL could gain many Senate seats, potentially expanding its caucus into the low‑ to mid‑20s and increasing the likelihood of a pro‑impeachment bloc that would heighten tensions with the Supreme Court.
  • The sequence of rulings and campaign moves this week shows courts playing a decisive role in shaping voter‑facing events and signals possible downstream effects on institutional conflict in Brazil if the projected Senate gains for the PL materialize.