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Court DNA Review Ties Fingernail Y‑Profile to Sempio’s Paternal Line

The tribunal expert’s preliminary biostatistics point to a paternal-line compatibility but classify the trace as partial and non‑identifying.

Overview

  • Court-appointed geneticist Denise Albani sent parties PEC tables showing 12 usable Y‑STR markers out of 16 from Chiara Poggi’s fingernails and noting a minor second male profile.
  • The calculations used the YHRD Western European database of about 39,150 haplotypes and yielded high likelihood ratios reported as roughly 476 to 2,153 times more probable for Sempio’s paternal line than for an unrelated male.
  • Albani stresses the profile is mixed, degraded and not consolidated, so it cannot identify an individual, with the full report due by December 5 and an evidentiary hearing set for December 18.
  • Sempio’s defense says the data are non‑individualizing and could reflect indirect transfer, family consultants call the biostatistical use of non‑replicated data scientifically unreliable, and an ex‑lawyer decries leaks as prejudicial.
  • Prosecutors cite multiple indicia beyond the DNA, including the disputed cellar stair imprint, calls and an alibi issue, and they are preparing to close the probe and may seek indictment in early 2026.