Overview
- Apple is projected to ship about 243 million iPhones in 2025 versus roughly 235 million smartphones for Samsung, translating to 19.4% and 18.7% global market share respectively.
- Early iPhone 17 momentum is strong, with a 22% sales jump in the first month and a 37% year‑over‑year gain in October in reported markets, outpacing overall industry growth.
- Analysts cite a replacement‑cycle inflection and a large pool of recent secondhand iPhone owners—358 million transactions from 2023 to Q2 2025—as key upgrade drivers.
- Macro factors, including eased U.S.–China trade tensions and a weaker dollar aiding purchases in China and emerging markets, have improved Apple’s shipment outlook as Samsung faces mid‑tier pressure from Chinese rivals.
- Apple has signaled a near‑record holiday quarter of about $140 billion in revenue, and Counterpoint forecasts Apple could retain the top spot through 2029 with an expected lower‑priced 17e and a foldable iPhone on the roadmap.