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Counterpoint Cuts 2026 Smartphone Outlook as DRAM Squeeze Lifts Prices

Memory prices could climb another 40% through mid-2026 as suppliers prioritize AI servers.

Overview

  • Counterpoint now expects average selling prices to rise about 6.9% in 2026 as manufacturers pass through higher component costs.
  • DRAM supply is tightening as memory makers shift capacity to high‑margin AI and server chips, pushing handset memory prices sharply higher.
  • Bills of materials have already jumped roughly 20–30% for sub‑$200 phones and 10–15% for mid‑to‑premium models, with another 8–15% increase possible into the first half of 2026.
  • OEMs are pruning low‑end portfolios and trimming specs—such as camera modules, displays, audio and memory—or reusing older parts, while steering buyers toward higher‑margin ‘Pro’ variants.
  • Apple and Samsung are seen as better insulated by scale and premium mix, whereas budget‑focused Chinese brands, including Honor, are expected to see deeper shipment declines.