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Counterpoint Cuts 2026 Smartphone Outlook as DRAM Crunch Lifts Prices

Suppliers are prioritizing higher‑margin server memory, limiting mobile DRAM availability.

Overview

  • The firm now forecasts global smartphone shipments to decline 2.1% in 2026 with average selling prices rising 6.9%.
  • Low-end models are hit hardest, with bill-of-materials up roughly 20–30% since early 2025, while mid and high tiers are up 10–15%.
  • Counterpoint warns memory prices could rise another ~40% through Q2 2026, pushing BoM a further 8–15% above already elevated levels.
  • Apple and Samsung are expected to see shipment declines of about 2%, while Honor may drop by more than 3% and Oppo and Vivo are revised from growth to declines.
  • OEMs are pruning low-end SKUs, reusing components, and downgrading cameras, displays, audio and memory configurations to protect margins.