Overview
- Counterpoint projects Apple will ship about 243 million iPhones in 2025 versus roughly 235 million for Samsung, equating to 19.4% vs 18.7% global share and Apple’s first lead since 2011.
- iPhone shipments are forecast to rise ~10% year over year compared with ~4.6% for Samsung, against an overall smartphone market expansion of about 3.3%.
- Evidence of demand includes iPhone 17 sales up 12% in the first four weeks vs iPhone 16 in the U.S., 18% higher early sales in China, a 22% first‑month jump, and a 37% October increase year over year.
- Analyst Yang Wang cites an upgrade-cycle inflection plus 358 million secondhand iPhones sold between 2023 and Q2 2025 as a sizable pool of likely upgraders.
- Counterpoint attributes additional momentum to easing U.S.–China trade frictions and a weaker dollar, and it forecasts Apple will retain the top spot through 2029, supported by a lower‑priced iPhone 17e and a foldable iPhone expected in 2026; figures refer to shipments, not final sales.