Overview
- CCN projects accumulated high-needs deficits could reach about £18bn by 2029, with at least 59 upper-tier councils saying they would be insolvent once the accounting override ends in March 2028.
- Official DfE data shows a record 638,745 active EHCPs, up 10.8% year on year, with CCN forecasting around 840,000 plans by 2028–29, or roughly one in 20 children and young people.
- Rising reliance on specialist placements is driving costs, with an estimated average of £72,000 per special school place compared with about £10,000 in mainstream, and billions forecast for private provision by the end of the decade.
- The government has delayed its SEND reforms into next year, saying it inherited a system “on its knees,” and is signaling a push for stronger mainstream inclusion through the forthcoming Schools White Paper.
- Parents report adversarial EHCP processes and costly legal battles, while campaigners and some MPs warn against reforms that would dilute individual legal entitlements by making plans more generic.