Overview
- Final 2025 forecast now calls for 62.3% occupancy, ADR up 0.8%, and RevPAR down 0.4%, marking a rare full‑year decline last seen in 2020 and 2009.
- Projections for 2026 were also trimmed with occupancy down 0.3 percentage points, ADR down 0.1 points, and RevPAR down 0.3 points.
- GOPPAR was revised lower as higher food and beverage expenses, other operated department costs, marketing, utilities, and slightly higher labor weigh on profitability.
- STR’s Amanda Hite pointed to rising unemployment and prices keeping ADR below inflation, while Tourism Economics’ Aran Ryan cited job market softening, policy uncertainty, and tariff costs as near‑term drags.
- Forecasters expect a moderate firming in 2026 driven by ongoing household income growth, tax cut benefits, resumed hiring, and increased international visitation tied to World Cup interest.