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Cornyn, Paxton Tied in Texas GOP Senate Primary, Poll Finds

A public survey after heavy pro-Cornyn ad buys reveals a toss-up poised to pivot on President Trump’s endorsement

Texas Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, speaks during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Dallas.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary.
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (C), Texas Solicitor General Judd E. Stone and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt walk out of the U.S. Supreme Court after arguments in their case about Title 42 on April 26, 2022 in Washington, DC. Paxton and Schmitt, who is running for the U.S. Senate in Missouri, are suing to challenge the the Biden Administration's repeal of the Trump Migrant Protection Protocols—aka “Remain in Mexico.” (Chip Somodevilla/Getty)

Overview

  • An Emerson College poll of Republican primary voters conducted Aug. 11–12 shows Sen. John Cornyn at 30%, Attorney General Ken Paxton at 29% and 37% undecided within a 4.4-point margin of error.
  • Pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority has invested over $3 million in advertising, and Senate Leadership Fund backers project up to $75 million more could be required to shore up Cornyn’s campaign.
  • Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball notes that 73% job approval for Trump among undecided primary voters makes his endorsement a potential swing factor in the tight contest.
  • Texas election rules mandate that any candidate failing to secure a majority on March 3, 2026, advances with the runner-up to a May runoff, heightening the stakes for undecided voters.
  • Both Republicans currently outperform Democrat Colin Allred in hypothetical general-election matchups, though Paxton’s legal controversies could demand extra GOP resources for a 2026 defense.