Overview

• An Emerson College survey publicized last week put the primary in a statistical tie, 30% for John Cornyn to 29% for Ken Paxton, with 37% undecided.
• The latest Texas Southern University poll, conducted Aug. 6–12 and released this week, shows Paxton up 44% to 39%, down from a nine-point lead in May.
• Cornyn launched a new digital ad after an FEC letter cited more than $650,000 in apparent excessive or impermissible contributions to Paxton’s campaign, with regulators requesting a response by Sept. 22.
• Outside groups backing Cornyn report heavy spending, including about $4 million from One Nation, $3.2 million from Texans for a Conservative Majority, and roughly $500,000 from Conservative Majority Project.
• An NRSC memo urges Republicans to consolidate behind Cornyn and warns of general-election risks with Paxton, as both candidates court President Trump, who has not endorsed in the race.