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5d ago

Cornyn Edges Paxton as Talarico’s Entry Jolts Fluid Texas Senate Primaries

A late‑August poll shows many voters remain undecided, signaling volatile contests before the March 3, 2026 vote.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton can be seen arriving with former U.S. President Donald Trump to court during Trump's trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments at Manhattan Criminal Court on April 30, 2024, in New York City. (Photo by Justin Lane-Pool/Getty Images)
Left: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton addresses the crowd during a rally at the Tarrant County Republican Party Headquarters in Fort Worth, Texas on Monday, January 6, 2025. Right: U.S. Sen. John Cornyn speaks with press after taking a tour of Camp East Montana, a new U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facility that will be housing migrants, at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas on Monday, August 11, 202…
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Overview

  • Texas Public Opinion Research’s Aug. 27–29 survey of 843 registered voters shows John Cornyn leading Ken Paxton 32% to 26% in the Republican primary, with 29% undecided (±4.6%).
  • The same poll reports weak net images for both Republicans, with Cornyn at 27% favorable to 31% unfavorable and Paxton at 25% favorable to 34% unfavorable.
  • In a hypothetical Democratic primary, undeclared Beto O’Rourke (27%) and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (26%) lead declared contenders Colin Allred (13%) and James Talarico (7%), with 18% undecided.
  • State Rep. James Talarico officially launched his Senate campaign this week, drawing notice from analysts who say his entry adds energy but note his limited name recognition in recent UT polling.
  • On a generic 2026 Senate ballot, Republicans lead Democrats 48% to 43%, and both Cornyn and Paxton are seeking President Trump’s endorsement, which pollsters say could be pivotal.