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2w ago

Cornyn and Paxton Essentially Tied in Texas GOP Senate Primary

With the 30%–29% margin inside the poll’s error rate, the 37% of undecided voters—who approve of President Trump at 73%—could determine the contest.

Texas Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, speaks during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Dallas.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary.
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Overview

  • The Emerson College survey of Aug. 11–12 finds Cornyn at 30% and Paxton at 29% among 491 likely Republican primary voters, within a 4.4-point margin of error.
  • Thirty-seven percent of likely GOP primary voters remain undecided, with 73% of that group approving of President Trump’s performance.
  • In hypothetical general-election matchups, Cornyn leads Democrat Colin Allred 45%–38% and Paxton leads 46%–41%.
  • Earlier this year, public and internal polls showed Paxton with double-digit advantages, prompting the Senate Leadership Fund to estimate more than $200 million would be needed to defend the seat under his nomination.
  • The candidates are trading barbs over conservative credentials, as Paxton brands Cornyn a 'RINO' and Cornyn highlights Paxton’s past indictments and impeachment acquittal.