Overview
- Three‑month LME futures touched $11,200 a ton, eclipsing the May 2024 peak and leaving prices up roughly 26%–27% year to date.
- Production setbacks at major mines in Chile, Indonesia and the DRC, plus lower output and guidance cuts from Glencore and Anglo American, have reduced supply.
- Traders redirected large volumes to the U.S. on tariff fears, boosting Comex prices and stranding inventories after the administration spared refined copper from duties.
- Sentiment has been supported by a weaker dollar, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and hopes for progress at a Trump–Xi meeting on trade.
- The ICSG projects a roughly 150,000‑ton refined‑market shortfall in 2026, while several analysts caution the rally could cool if demand underwhelms or speculative positions ease.