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Copper Sets New Record as LME Withdrawals Tighten Supply and Stoke Squeeze Risk

A rush to pull metal from LME warehouses in Asia has tightened deliverable supply, pushing the cash market into sharp backwardation.

Overview

  • Copper futures traded above $11,500 per ton after a surge in orders to remove metal from London Metal Exchange depots, extending this year’s more than 30% rally.
  • Mercuria notified LME warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan of plans to take more than 40,000 tons, as cancelled warrants reached 56,875 tons or 35% of total LME stocks.
  • The cash-to-three‑month premium peaked near $88 per ton this week and traders warn of a potential short squeeze as the December 17 settlement approaches.
  • Tariff uncertainty in the United States has redirected large volumes of copper to American ports, driving a price arbitrage that has lifted U.S. futures and prompted record premiums for buyers in Europe and Asia.
  • Analysts cite mine accidents and outages in Chile and Indonesia and structural demand from electrification and AI data centers, while banks and consultancies project continued deficits and higher prices into 2026 as miners convene investor meetings.