Overview
- Copper hit 16-month highs across exchanges, with SHFE reaching 88,620 yuan a ton, LME touching about $11,076, and New York futures up as much as 2.4%, while other base metals also gained.
- U.S. and Chinese negotiators outlined a preliminary trade framework on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit, setting up Trump and Xi to meet Thursday in South Korea to discuss final terms.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the threat of 100% U.S. tariffs is off the table and indicated Beijing will delay expanded rare-earth export controls for a year with a revival of U.S. soybean purchases expected.
- Prices are building on a year of tight supply after setbacks at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia and Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC, with copper up about 25% year-to-date and approaching its May 2024 LME record near $11,105.
- A Reuters poll shows analysts now expect LME cash copper to average $10,500 in 2026, with the market shifting to a forecast deficit of 124,000 tons in 2025 and 150,000 tons in 2026.