Overview
- LME copper briefly jumped as much as 6.6% intraday after the post‑Christmas reopen before paring gains, capping a December advance of more than 10%.
- Traders have redirected large volumes to the U.S. in anticipation of potential import tariffs, leaving other regions short on supply and lifting prices.
- Supply constraints deepened after disruptions at major mines including Kamoa‑Kakula in the DRC, Codelco’s El Teniente in Chile, and Freeport’s Grasberg in Indonesia.
- Analysts are split, with Morgan Stanley projecting a roughly 600,000‑tonne deficit in 2026 and Citi flagging a bullish case up to $15,000 per tonne, while Goldman and BMO warn the rally leans on expectations.
- If U.S. tariffs prove milder than feared, an estimated 730,000–830,000 tonnes stockpiled in the U.S. could be released, risking a sharp correction; Shanghai futures neared 100,000 yuan and New York hit $5.9 per pound.