Overview
- Benchmark LME futures topped about $11,700 a ton in recent trade, extending a powerful rally tied to tariff hedging and regional arbitrage.
- Mercuria ordered roughly $500 million of copper withdrawn from LME warehouses, with inventory cancellations among the largest in more than a decade.
- Goldman Sachs says the breakout above $11,000 is unlikely to last, projecting a roughly 500,000‑ton surplus this year and about 160,000 tons in 2026 with no shortage until 2029.
- Citigroup and JPMorgan remain constructive, flagging a potential refined deficit in 2026 and price targets around $12,500 to $13,000 next year.
- Goldman expects Chinese copper consumption to drop nearly 8% year over year in the fourth quarter, then grow about 2.8% next year.