Copom Pauses Easing and Keeps Selic at 13.75%

Overview

• The Copom voted unanimously on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, to interrupt a sequence of five 0.25 percentage-point cuts and maintain the Selic rate at 13.75% to preserve price stability.
• Officials cited a worse external backdrop, higher inflationary pressures and a de-anchoring of inflation expectations as the main reasons for pausing the easing cycle.
• The bank materially raised its inflation projections, with the 2027 forecast rising to 4.7% and the 12 months ending Q2‑2028 now seen at 3.5%, both higher than prior estimates.
• Markets reacted to recent political and external shocks with a sharp fall in equity prices and currency weakness after the election, which the Copom said has increased fiscal and exchange-rate risks that feed into inflation.
• Keeping the Selic at 13.75% leaves Brazil with one of the highest estimated real policy rates globally—about 9.5% by some consultancies—and the Copom signaled continued vigilance ahead of its December meeting.