Copom Minutes Reaffirm Prolonged Hold at 15% Selic as Brazil’s Central Bank Targets Inflation

Overview

• The Central Bank kept the Selic at 15% for a third straight meeting, the highest level since 2006, and released minutes reinforcing a long period at this restrictive setting.
• The minutes say policy will stay tight for a “bastante prolongado” period and note the committee would resume hikes if necessary to ensure convergence to the target.
• Officials acknowledge a gradual cooling in activity, softer current inflation and some improvement in expectations, yet projections remain above target in key horizons.
• The document cites Focus-based estimates of 4.6% inflation for 2025, 3.6% for 2026, and 3.3% by the second quarter of 2027, as it incorporates recent fiscal measures with caution.
• Political pressure for cuts continues, with President Lula and Minister Gleisi Hoffmann urging easing, while Finance Minister Fernando Haddad defends Gabriel Galípolo and says bank representatives see room to lower rates.