Overview
- Flávio Bolsonaro announced Alfredo Gaspar as his vice-presidential pick on Wednesday, Aug. 5, after parties in the centrão declined to join the PL coalition.
- Gaspar is a 55-year-old ex-prosecutor from Alagoas who led the CPMI that investigated INSS frauds and used that role to name figures connected to Fábio Luís Lula da Silva.
- PL’s failure to secure formal alliances with PP, União Brasil, Republicanos and Podemos leaves the campaign running 'puro-sangue,' which cuts the party’s allotted TV time and national airtime resources.
- Campaigns and analysts view the pick as a shift toward law-and-order messaging and a direct attempt to exploit federal probes into Lula’s son, while Lula’s allies work to contain reputational damage from those investigations.
- Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows Lula ahead nationally but within margins that advisors treat cautiously because 2022 final polls underestimated Jair Bolsonaro and could miss a hidden or late-shifting vote.