Overview
- Copernicus reported an all-time high Nino3.4 sea-surface temperature of 29.70°C and a record global sea surface temperature for September 2026, showing exceptional Pacific and ocean heat.
- NOAA, the WMO and other forecasters say the El Niño is very strong and likely to peak in December and persist into early 2027, raising the odds of widespread weather extremes.
- Scientists warn that long-term human-driven ocean warming is amplifying impacts and that different indices and background adjustments make it hard to say definitively whether this is the single strongest El Niño on record.
- The event is already linked to major regional effects, including Tokyo’s prolonged rain streak, Chile’s Atacama bloom, a record-active eastern North Pacific hurricane month, and large fires and haze in Indonesia and the Amazon.
- International agencies and research groups warn of large humanitarian and health risks, with UNICEF noting hundreds of millions of children exposed to drier or wetter conditions and researchers estimating substantial excess heat deaths and pressures on food, water and power systems.