Overview
- Citing a Copernicus monthly analysis published Friday, climate scientists say 2026 is almost certain to top 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels for the calendar year.
- October 2026 was the warmest October on record with global near-surface air temperatures about 1.75°C above pre‑industrial and global sea‑surface averages at 20.95°C, while the central/eastern tropical Pacific showed an anomaly near 3.21°C linked to a very strong El Niño.
- Copernicus and ECMWF experts now expect the 2023–2026 four‑year average to also exceed 1.5°C, which is why the UN/UNEP have moved to accept a likely short-term 'overshoot' of the Paris target.
- European officials point to heavy human and economic costs from the 2026 summer — tens of thousands of heat-related deaths, roughly 700,000 hectares burned, and estimated losses above €100 billion — and call for about €70 billion per year in adaptation investment.
- Policymakers heading into COP31 face clear choices: speed deeper emissions cuts, fund large-scale adaptation and resilience, and consider rapid CO₂ removal options to limit how long temperatures stay above the 1.5°C threshold.