Copernicus Reports October 2026 as Warmest Month on Record

Overview

• Copernicus said on Friday that October 2026 was the warmest month ever recorded, with global surface air temperature 1.75°C above pre‑industrial levels.
• ERA5‑driven model ensembles give a 99% probability that the 2026 annual average will top 1.5°C and put the year's likely range at about 1.56°C–1.61°C. ECMWF analysts estimate roughly an 80% chance 2026 will finish as the second‑warmest year on record and about a 20% chance it will equal or exceed 2024.
• An exceptionally strong El Niño is amplifying human‑caused warming, with the Niño 3.4 region hitting a +3.21°C anomaly and global non‑polar sea‑surface temperature reaching 20.95°C in October.
• The findings increase the risk of a temporary overshoot of the Paris 1.5°C limit, add urgency to negotiations at COP31, and heighten near‑term risks of more heatwaves, floods and fires for vulnerable communities.