El Niño Is Underway as Oceans Hit Record Heat, Agencies Warn of a Strong Event

Overview

• The World Meteorological Organization and national services say El Niño is already forming and likely to intensify into a strong event, with peak effects most likely between November 2026 and February 2027.
• The Copernicus climate service recorded the warmest global ocean surface temperatures on record for June, with daily averages peaking around June 21, a condition scientists link to both long-term warming and the developing El Niño.
• Governments are mobilizing: Peru declared emergency status for roughly 796 districts to prepare for heavy rains and landslides, while Brazil created a federal working group and states such as Rio de Janeiro finalized contingency plans for floods, drought and wildfires.
• Extreme heat and related harms are already visible, including a European heatwave that Spain’s mortality monitoring system linked to about 1,028 heat-related deaths in June and heat alerts and response measures in the United States and Portugal.
• Scientists and agencies coordinating forecasts (WMO, Copernicus, NOAA and national services) warn that warmer oceans amplify El Niño’s effects by energizing storms, raising evaporation and stressing water supplies and marine ecosystems, so authorities are issuing monthly updates and sector-specific advisories to guide preparedness.