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Copernicus: 2025 Virtually Certain to Rank as Second or Third Hottest Year on Record

Fresh EU data shows the 2023–2025 average is set to top 1.5°C, underscoring a warming trend driven by fossil-fuel emissions.

Overview

  • Global temperatures from January to November were about 1.48°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, placing 2025 in a virtual tie with 2023 and behind 2024.
  • November 2025 registered roughly 1.54°C above preindustrial levels, ranking as the third-warmest November on record.
  • Copernicus expects the 2023–2025 three-year average to exceed 1.5°C for the first time, even though the Paris target is defined over decades rather than single years.
  • Scientists link the persistent warming chiefly to greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, with 2025 remaining unusually hot despite a weak La Niña.
  • Severe impacts this year included lethal cyclones and flooding in South and Southeast Asia as well as major wildfires and heat, while COP30 closed with limited new steps to cut emissions.