COP30 Science Warns 2025 Fossil CO2 to Hit Record, Putting 1.5°C Beyond Reach

Overview

• Global Carbon Project projects fossil CO2 emissions rising 1.1% in 2025 to 38.1 gigatonnes, setting a new record.
• The study estimates a remaining 1.5°C carbon budget of about 170 gigatonnes of CO2 that would be used up before 2030, leading authors to call the target no longer plausible.
• Climate Action Tracker’s update at COP30 finds new NDCs to 2035 do not narrow the gap, with current policies pointing toward approximately 2.6°C of warming by century’s end.
• Sectoral and country trends include increases across coal, oil and gas, a 6.8% jump in international aviation emissions, and projected 2025 rises in the United States (+1.9%), India (+1.4%), China (+0.4%) and the European Union (+0.4%).
• Talks in Belém feature a growing coalition for a fossil-fuel phaseout as disputes over climate finance levels and adaptation metrics leave key decisions unsettled heading into week two.