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COP30 Falls Short as World Enters 1.5°C Overshoot, Push Grows for Binding Methane Rules

Backers argue a narrow, enforceable pact on oil and gas leaks offers the fastest route to near-term cooling.

Overview

  • Copernicus reports the global three-year average temperature has, for the first time, exceeded 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2025 set to join 2023 and 2024 as the warmest years since industrialization.
  • UNEP, WMO, the IPCC and Climate Action Tracker each find current policies and planned measures remain grossly insufficient to curb accelerating warming.
  • COP30 in Belém ended without any reference to a fossil‑fuel phase‑out in the final text, and most finance, adaptation and forest commitments were voluntary and discretionary.
  • Leaders including Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and the heads of Micronesia and Tuvalu are urging a legally binding agreement for the oil and gas sector, as the EU enacts methane rules and companies covering nearly 40% of global output pledge no routine flaring and near‑zero leaks by 2030.
  • Analyses indicate cutting methane by roughly 30% this decade could lower near‑term warming by about 0.3°C, yet UN reporting suggests current voluntary efforts would deliver only around an 8% reduction by 2030.