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At Mid‑COP30, 70,000 March in Belém as Ministers Move to Break Stalemate

Fresh scientific warnings and a surge of industry lobbyists are darkening expectations for a breakthrough.

Overview

  • Climate Action Tracker told delegates the latest 2035 pledges are not closing the gap and still point to roughly 2.6°C of warming.
  • The Global Carbon Project reported fossil‑fuel emissions at record levels and projected about a 1.1% rise in global emissions in 2025.
  • Global Witness counted about 1,600 fossil‑fuel‑linked lobbyists at COP30 with access to negotiation areas, the highest on record.
  • Key files on finance under Article 9.1, indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation, and fossil‑fuel transition language remain unresolved and will be escalated to ministers, as some African nations push to delay adaptation decisions to 2027.
  • A massive Marcha Global pelo Clima filled Belém’s streets with Indigenous and civil‑society demands; ministers Marina Silva and Sônia Guajajara addressed the crowd, while Brazil’s push for a fossil phase‑out roadmap gained backing from at least 23 countries.