COP30 Faces Record Emissions Warning as Talks Shift to Ministers

Overview

• New Global Carbon Project data presented in Belém projects fossil‑fuel CO2 at a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, up 1.1% from 2024, with the ~170‑billion‑tonne carbon budget for 1.5°C nearly exhausted before 2030.
• Climate Action Tracker reports that updated 2030/2035 pledges still miss the 1.5°C pathway, leaving a projected warming of roughly 2.1–2.6°C this century.
• Key files stalled after week one include climate finance under Article 9.1, proposed scaling of flows (with a floated figure up to $1.3 trillion annually uncertain), and agreement on Global Goal on Adaptation indicators, which some African countries want to delay.
• A scientist group led by figures such as Carlos Nobre and Johan Rockström warns scientific references are being diluted in texts and urges a fossil‑fuel phase‑out roadmap with emissions cuts of about 5% per year starting next year.
• Observers note a record presence of about 1,600 fossil‑fuel lobbyists at COP30 as thousands join a Marcha Global pelo Clima in Belém, while at least 23 countries signal support for a gradual fossil‑fuel exit.