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COP30 Briefings Warn of Faster Warming, Tipping Points, and Deadly Heat

Fresh data shortens the timeline for reaching 1.5°C to around 2030.

Overview

  • Updated analyses find global warming now running at about 0.27°C per decade, with records set across 2023–2025 and scientists projecting a 1.5°C breach around 2030.
  • Sea levels have accelerated to roughly 4.5 millimeters per year over the past decade, while the World Meteorological Organization estimates total warming at 1.3–1.4°C since pre-industrial times.
  • Evidence of tipping-point risks is growing, including near-irreversible warm-water coral die-offs, warnings of Amazon dieback, declining Antarctic sea ice, and potential AMOC disruption linked to Greenland meltwater.
  • The 2025 State of Wildfires report tallies about 3.7 million square kilometers burned from March 2024 to February 2025, with higher CO2 emissions as more carbon-dense forests went up in flames.
  • Researchers estimate 24,400 heat-related deaths this summer in parts of Europe, 62,700 across 32 countries last year, and more than $1 trillion in 2024 productivity losses, while the U.S. 2026 budget proposal would slash NASA and NOAA climate programs as other nations boost science funding.