Overview
- The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved 18 contests toward Democrats, including eight from likely to solid Democrat, seven into toss-up or lean Democrat, and three from solid to likely Republican.
- Key battlegrounds newly rated as toss-ups include Iowa’s 3rd and New York’s 17th, with Ohio’s 9th and Texas’s 34th also shifting into toss-up after previously leaning Republican.
- House Democrats need only three net flips to reach 218 seats, as Republicans govern with a two-seat margin that could shrink to a single vote after a spring special election.
- Cook analysts point to President Trump’s roughly 42% approval, strong Democratic showings in 2025 off-year races, and weak GOP challenger fields in several districts as drivers of the shift.
- California’s voter-approved congressional maps remained in place after a federal appeals court ruling this week, and Cook sets realistic Democratic pickup expectations at roughly 14 to 20 seats rather than a large wave.