Overview
- Two polls published Sunday produced sharply different pictures: Kan/Kantar put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar at 24 seats, Likud at 21 and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael clearing the threshold with four seats, while Channel 14 showed Likud at 31 seats, Yashar at 24 and a right‑wing bloc with 63 seats.
- The Kan/Kantar result suggests Winter’s new right‑wing list is pulling votes from Likud and smaller hard‑right parties, reshuffling competition on the right and weakening a clear Likud‑led majority.
- A separate Midgam/Channel 12 scenario shows the opposite possibility by projecting that certain mergers — for example Smotrich with Feiglin — would eliminate Winter’s chance to enter the Knesset, illustrating how small coalitions change outcomes.
- Because Israel uses nationwide proportional representation with a 61‑seat threshold to form a government, modest shifts or lists failing to cross the electoral threshold can flip control of the Knesset and decide who can realistically build a coalition.
- What to watch next is whether small parties merge or fall below the threshold and how poll methodology and outlet differences continue to diverge, since those factors will determine whether Netanyahu or an anti‑Netanyahu bloc has a viable path to govern and what policies voters may see enacted.