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Contradictory Exit Polls Leave Poland’s Presidential Runoff Too Close to Call

Official results due Monday will set the course for Poland’s EU ties, domestic reforms, ideological direction

Karol Nawrocki, candidate for the 2025 Polish presidential election supported by Poland's right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, flashes the victory sign in front of supporters as exit polls were announced on tv during their election night event at the Mala Warszawa Theatre in Warsaw, Poland, during the second round of the presidential elections on June 1, 2025.
Preliminary results are displayed during the election night event showing the percentage of votes for presidential candidates, Karol Nawrocki (L) supported by Poland's right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, and Rafal Trzaskowski, Warsaw's Mayor and member of ruling centrist Civic Coalition party, at the Mala Warszawa Theatre in Warsaw, Poland, during the second round of the presidential elections on June 1, 2025. The centrist and nationalist candidates in Poland's presidential election on June 1 both claimed victory after an exit poll indicated they were neck and neck. (Photo by Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP) (Photo by WOJTEK RADWANSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Two separate Ipsos exit polls released on June 1 conflicted, first showing Rafal Trzaskowski ahead with 50.3% to Karol Nawrocki’s 49.7% and a later poll reversing the lead to 50.7% for Nawrocki versus 49.3% for Trzaskowski.
  • Both candidates declared victory on election night in Warsaw despite the statistical tie in exit polling and the uncertainty of the final count.
  • The National Electoral Commission is scheduled to publish the official runoff totals on June 2, which will determine whether Poland moves further toward liberal EU integration or conservative nationalism.
  • Trzaskowski has campaigned on promises to restore judicial independence, loosen abortion restrictions and deepen ties with the European Union.
  • Nawrocki has positioned himself as a champion of traditional values with support from U.S. conservatives including Donald Trump, and he denies past allegations of criminal associations.