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3d ago

Consumers Turn More Cautious as NY Fed Survey Shows Higher Inflation Expectations and Job-Market Jitters

The reading arrives during a shutdown data gap that complicates late-October Fed policy decisions.

A Chipotle restaurant advertises it is hiring in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S., August 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
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Overview

  • One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% in September from 3.2% in August, with three- and five-year outlooks holding near 3%.
  • Respondents raised the odds that unemployment will be higher in a year and their own job-loss risk, even as re-employment prospects improved.
  • Fewer households expect to be better off in a year, and expected spending growth declined in the latest survey.
  • Year-ahead food-price expectations hit their highest since March 2023, with grocery costs up 2.7% in August from a year earlier, according to CPI data cited by CNBC.
  • The survey was completed before the government shutdown paused key reports; the Fed cut rates to 4.00%–4.25% last month and market analysts see a further easing on Oct. 28–29 as tariff-related price risks linger.