Overview

• The New York Fed’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one-year inflation forecasts fell to 3.2% from 3.6%, with three- and five-year outlooks also easing.
• Respondents expect slower price gains for gas, medical care, college education and rent but anticipate a 5.5% rise in food costs over the next year.
• A Reuters poll of 105 economists finds the Fed will likely keep its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% at the June meeting, with rate cuts pushed into September.
• Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal predict May’s CPI will tick up as tariffs boost core goods prices, potentially delaying future rate cuts.
• Robust job growth in May has tempered market and Fed expectations for near-term rate reductions due to reduced pressure to stimulate employment.