Overview

• Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. consumers will absorb 55% of tariff costs in 2025, with U.S. businesses shouldering about 22% and foreign exporters roughly 18%.
• Retail trackers report imported goods sold in the U.S. are about 4% more expensive since March while domestic products are up roughly 2%, and export-price data show many foreign producers raised dollar prices.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs account for roughly 30–40 basis points of recent core inflation, while other estimates range higher, including a Boston Fed calculation of about 75 basis points.
• Retailers warn of price pressures and supply-chain disruptions from the president’s threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports set to begin Nov. 1, with some planning shipment pull-forwards near the holiday season.
• The White House maintains foreign exporters will ultimately bear the costs even as trade indicators weaken, with EU exports to the U.S. falling and the WTO cutting its global trade growth outlook.