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Consultation Closes as New Modelling Intensifies Opposition to Heathrow Third Runway

New climate analysis says the expansion would breach the UK's carbon budgets, forcing ministers to choose the proposal or legal compliance.

Overview

  • The Government's public consultation on the draft Heathrow Expansion National Policy Statement closed on 1 September and the Department for Transport says it will review responses before announcing next steps later this year.
  • University of Manchester's Tyndall Centre modelling, commissioned by Friends of the Earth, finds a third runway would push UK aviation past the Seventh Carbon Budget and says sustainable aviation fuels and large‑scale carbon removals are unlikely to scale quickly enough to prevent an overshoot.
  • London mayor Sadiq Khan and seven neighbouring council leaders have formally opposed the draft HENPS, citing risks to air quality, noise, local health and taxpayer exposure to unaffordable transport upgrades.
  • Heathrow, some construction firms and unions argue the scheme could create tens of thousands of jobs and be privately financed, while government analyses show much smaller growth gains and report possible net social costs that factor in environmental damage.
  • The immediate process now moves to DfT review and likely parliamentary scrutiny or a vote later in 2026, with any formal planning application and a final decision on a runway not expected until around 2029, a timeline that leaves communities facing years of uncertainty.