Overview
- The Constitutional Democratic Party formally declared it will not join an organizational merger with the Centrist Reform Alliance and Komeito, halting the three‑party fusion effort.
- Party leaders are scheduled to meet on Aug. 31 to confirm the halt to the merger and to negotiate how the parties will cooperate in the upcoming extraordinary Diet session and in elections.
- Pressure is growing within Komeito for MPs of Komeito origin to leave the Centrist Reform Alliance, creating a real prospect that the centrist grouping could split.
- Public opinion has pushed the retreat: a Kyodo poll in August found 51.0% prefer returning to the original parties rather than proceeding with a merger, with especially strong opposition among former CDP supporters.
- The Centrist Reform Alliance currently holds 49 lower‑house seats (28 Komeito‑aligned and 21 CDP‑aligned), which keeps it as the nominal largest opposition group but leaves the opposition fragmented against a government with a supermajority.