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Constellation Brands Outlook Darkens With Target Cut and Slowing Beer Growth

Limited near-term upside reflects portfolio changes that have not yet revived growth.

Overview

  • Piper Sandler on November 21 cut its price target on Constellation Brands to $135 from $155 and kept a Neutral rating, citing GLP-1 weight-loss drug adoption as a headwind to alcohol demand.
  • The firm projected a 30–70 basis-point annual drag on U.S. alcohol sales and reduced its beer volume growth estimates for late fiscal 2026 and throughout 2027.
  • Constellation lowered guidance in September, forecasting comparable EPS of $11.30 to $11.60 and a 4% to 6% decline in organic net sales for fiscal 2026.
  • In fiscal 2025, revenue was 84% beer, 14% wine, and 4% spirits, and overall growth slowed to 2% as beer decelerated and wine and spirits contracted.
  • The stock has fallen more than 40% over three years while the S&P 500 gained over 70%, reflecting pressure from tariffs on aluminum cans, Mexican supply constraints, inflation, and weaker drinking among younger consumers.