Overview
- The More in Common poll, fielded 18–21 September and published Wednesday, puts Labour on 26 percent, the Conservatives on 23 percent and Reform UK on 22 percent.
- Police opened an inquiry after a Channel 4 undercover report suggested senior Reform figures discussed disguising foreign donations, a development that analysts say has accelerated the party’s fall in the polls.
- YouGov analyses show growing willingness to back a 'stop Reform' candidate, with Labour beating Reform 41% to 26% in toss-up seats, and Farage registering a very high unfavourability rating of 69 percent (net -45).
- Polls vary between firms and commentators note the Conservatives could consolidate former Reform voters if they start consistently polling ahead, a dynamic that would shift how votes translate into seats.
- Electoral Calculus modelling using current patterns projects a likely hung Parliament with sizeable negotiation ahead, a scenario that increases policy uncertainty and makes any early election and coalition deals key developments to watch.