Overview

• Catherine Connolly holds 36% to Heather Humphreys’ 25% in a Business Post/Red C survey that captures the first snapshot since Jim Gavin exited the campaign.
• Jim Gavin polled 12% despite withdrawing on October 5, as his name remains on the ballot under Ireland’s single transferable vote system.
• Modelled redistribution of Gavin voters in the poll lifts Connolly to 39% and Humphreys to 31%, with a sizable share not transferring preferences.
• The poll was conducted online with 1,001 respondents from October 2–7 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
• Taoiseach Micheál Martin said he will vote for Humphreys, while the campaign moves toward another on-air debate ahead of the October 24 election.