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Congress Weighs ACA Subsidy Extension as Report Projects $32 Billion Provider Losses

Marketplaces prepare to warn customers of steep premium increases before open enrollment.

Overview

  • A new Urban Institute analysis says letting the enhanced premium tax credits lapse would cut provider revenue by $32.1 billion in 2026 and raise uncompensated care by $7.7 billion, with 7.3 million losing subsidized coverage and 4.8 million becoming uninsured.
  • KFF estimates many enrollees’ premium payments would jump by more than 75% on average, as insurers have already filed higher 2026 rates anticipating a sicker risk pool.
  • Pennsylvania’s Pennie projects an average 82% cost increase next year without renewal, expects to notify nearly 500,000 customers of higher prices starting Sept. 30, and warns up to 150,000 could drop coverage.
  • Hospitals and health systems, including major Texas providers, urge renewal as ACA enrollment in the state has roughly doubled since 2021 and leaders warn of sharp revenue losses and coverage disruptions.
  • Democrats are pressing to extend the credits in government funding talks ahead of the Oct. 1 deadline, Republicans cite long‑term costs and fraud concerns, and some GOP lawmakers signal openness to a compromise.