Overview

• Republicans passed a House stopgap to Nov. 21, but the Senate blocked it and leaders left Washington with the House not due back until Oct. 1.
• The White House budget office told agencies to prepare reduction‑in‑force plans for programs losing funds, drawing denunciations from Chuck Schumer and criticism from Sen. Susan Collins.
• Prediction markets put the chance of a shutdown around two‑thirds, with Polymarket at 69% and Kalshi at 67%.
• If funding lapses, hundreds of thousands of federal workers could be furloughed as essential staff work without pay, national parks would close or cut services, and airport screening and passport processing could slow.
• Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and mail delivery would continue, but key economic reports could be delayed and contractors and state grant programs are bracing for disruptions.