Congress Clears Power-Sector Bill With Oil Royalty Price Overhaul, Sending It to Lula

Overview

• Lawmakers approved MP 1.304/2025 with the article that changes the oil reference price for royalties intact, and the text now goes to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for sanction.
• Article 15 bases the reference price on averages reported by internationally recognized price-reporting agencies for arm’s-length transactions, with a fallback to Law 14.596/2023 and future detailing by presidential decree by crude type and field location.
• A separate provision that would have let the CNPE set values for gas evacuation and processing was removed, Petrobras executive Angélica Laureano said after the vote.
• Industry reaction split sharply, with the IBP warning of legal uncertainty and investment disincentives while RefinaBrasil backed the change, citing an estimated R$83 billion in foregone revenue over a decade under the current model.
• Petrobras sources and executives cautioned that higher government take could jeopardize projects under evaluation, including Campos Basin revitalization and units such as Barracuda–Caratinga, Albacora, Marlim Sul–Marlim Leste and the Sergipe Águas Profundas FPSOs, noting FPSO costs have climbed from about US$2.5 billion to roughly US$4 billion in recent years.