Overview
- A pro-Cornyn super PAC poll (Peak Insights, Nov. 20–25; n=600; ±4%) puts John Cornyn at 35%, Ken Paxton at 33%, Wesley Hunt at 18%, with 14% undecided.
- A Stratus Intelligence survey tied to a pro-Hunt effort (Nov. 21–22; n=857; ±3.3%) reports Paxton at 36%, Hunt at 26%, Cornyn at 25%, with 14% undecided.
- Recent surveys indicate no candidate currently reaches a majority in the March 3 primary, making a May 26 runoff between the top two likely under Texas rules.
- Heavy advertising has driven down net favorability for all three, with spending topping $40 million on Cornyn’s behalf and polling memos noting sharp declines for Paxton.
- Republican strategists split on Paxton’s electability, Democrats signal they would prioritize the race if he advances, and President Donald Trump has not endorsed.