Conflicting Polls Keep Maine Senate Race a Toss-Up

Overview

• The New York Times/Siena poll, released Thursday, found Republican Sen. Susan Collins ahead 49% to 46% among 619 likely Maine voters.
• Two other polls published the same period—the UMass Lowell/YouGov survey and a University of New Hampshire poll—showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading, creating divergent snapshots of the race.
• A ProPublica report about a closed FBI inquiry tied to a Collins ally was published Sept. 22 after many polls wrapped and Collins has denied any wrongdoing.
• Prediction markets and handicappers shifted modestly toward Collins but still view the contest as a statistical toss-up, making any late movement or early voting particularly consequential.
• Maine’s large independent and working‑class electorate, combined with the Democrats’ late nominee change, means small shifts in independent and crossover voting could determine the seat that Democrats see as pivotal to regaining Senate control.