Overview

• Italy’s GDP is now projected at +0.5% in 2025 and +0.7% in 2026 in Confindustria’s Autumn forecast, lower than previous estimates.
• The report estimates 2025 output would have been −0.2% without the boost from PNRR projects.
• Recent expansion has relied on investment supported by Industria/Transizione 4.0 tax credits, which largely end in late 2025.
• Confindustria urges channeling part of households’ more than €6 trillion in financial wealth into companies, noting that shifting 1% of deposits could finance about €15 billion in new investment.
• Citing weak exports, rising imports and tariff pressures, the group calls for a three‑year industrial plan, tailored incentives by firm size and a unified Southern ZES, and it notes a rising savings tendency is holding back consumption.