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Confcommercio Forecasts Nearly €50 Billion in December Spending From Italy’s 13th‑Month Pay

Tamer inflation with record employment fuels a rebound in holiday demand.

Overview

  • Confcommercio’s study estimates €57.4 billion in net thirteenth‑month payouts to workers and pensioners in December.
  • After about €9.4 billion set aside for IMU, TASI and vehicle tax, roughly €48 billion remains for consumption, rising to €49.9 billion when self‑employed workers are included.
  • Christmas gifts are projected at €10.1 billion with per‑capita spending near €211, the highest gifts total since 2020, as 81.5% plan to buy presents and 47.8% say they will do so with pleasure.
  • Average household spending this month is pegged at €1,964, up €53 or 2.8% from 2024 and about 6.9% above 2019 levels.
  • Recent momentum includes about €5 billion in Black Week sales (+20% year on year) and stronger outlays for leisure and culture (+17%), appliances (+10.5%), personal wellness (+4%) and dining out (+0.8%).